USDA updates production reports
By Jean Caspers-Simmet
simmet@agrinews.com
Date Modified: 04/01/2010 9:15 AM
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NASHUA, Iowa —USDA updated its production, stocks, and use estimates last week.
The update contained the resurvey of corn and soybean producers who had crop still out in the field during the January survey, said Chad Hart, Iowa State University Extension grain marketing economist.
Corn producers in the Dakotas will be resurveyed in the coming weeks. The resurvey lowered 2009 to 2010 corn production by 20 million bushels, to 13.131 billion bushels, and lowered 2009 to 2010 soybean production by 2 million bushels. However, bigger adjustments were made on the demand side, Hart said.
For corn, export demand was lowered by 100 million bushels to 1.9 billion. Competition from Argentina and South Africa will put a dent in U.S. corn export demand because those countries will have higher corn production than previously expected, Hart said.
This raises projected U.S. ending stocks to 1.8 billion bushels. Given the drop in demand, the season-average price estimate for 2009 to 2010 was lowered to $3.60 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month and down nearly 50 cents from last year. Private analysts are projecting prices a little below that.
Soybean demand continues to grow as soybean exports were raised again, another 20 million bushels to 1.42 billion, Hart said. Continued Chinese demand trumped higher supplies from South America. Soybean crush was increased another 10 million bushels to 1.73 billion bushels, on the strength of soybean meal exports. Ending stocks for 2009 to 2010 were reduced to 190 million bushels, down 20 million from last month but above record low ending stocks of 138 million bushels in 2008.
USDA projects a season-average $9.45 pricel for soybeans.
"These updates are bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans as expectations were that the export and resurvey adjustments for corn would offset each other," Hart said.
USDA's computer models are projecting a record 2010 corn crop of 13.16 billion bushels, Hart said. With strong demand, ending stocks are projected at 1.65 billion bushels, which would be down slightly from the 2009 marketing year. The season average price for 2010 is projected at $3.60.
The 2010 soybean crop is projected to be 3.26 billion bushels, down slightly from 2009. For soybeans, ending stocks are projected to be up a bit at 330 million bushels, compared to 190 million bushels for 2009. USDA is reporting 2010 season average soybean prices of $8.80 per bushel.
"There is still some carry in the corn market and that will continue into 2010," Hart said. "For beans there is a little carry that will fall out in the spring and summer and then build some in 2010."
Hart urged farmers to look at preharvest marketing strategies for the 2010 crop.