No big surprises in planting intentions report

By Heather Thorstensen
hthorstensen@agrinews.com

Date Modified: 04/15/2010 8:49 AM

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WASHINGTON — Minnesota farmers intend to plant the same amount of corn and soybeans in 2010 as they did last year, while Iowa producers expect less corn and more soybeans.

That's according to USDA's Prospective Plantings Report released March 31. In general, the report was in line with trade expectations.

American farmers intend to plant the most soybeans ever in 2010: 78.1 million acres. It's a slight increase, less than 1 percent, compared to 2009 plantings.

Corn acres are also expected to gain ground nationally. Producers intend to plant 3 percent more corn than 2009, at 88.8 million acres. This would be the second-largest area planted to corn since 1947. The most corn was planted in 2007.

All wheat acreage is expected to drop 9 percent across the country to 53.8 million acres. It would be the lowest amount of wheat planted since 1971.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service creates the report using a survey of what farmers intend to plant. The survey was taken the first half of March and included 86,000 producers. Weather will be a big factor of these projections coming true.

Minnesota

The report estimates Minnesota will have 7.6 million acres in corn and 7.2 million acres in soybeans this year, literally unchanged from 2009.

That doesn't surprise University of Minnesota grain marketing specialist Edward Usset. He has spoken with a balanced number of producers thinking of planting either crop.

"Both of them are at cash price levels that are not robustly profitable," Usset said.

Wheat is estimated to decline by 5 percent, or 85,000 acres, to 1.57 million acres. It would be a 15,000-acre increase of winter wheat but a 100,000-acre drop in spring wheat.

David Torgerson, executive director of Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, was surprised that winter wheat acres may rise.

"We were expecting spring wheat acres to go down some," he said.

Minnesotans expect to plant 20,000 more acres of barley and 25,000 more acres of oats than they did last year.

Suga rbeets are expected to drop by 4 percent, or 18,000 acres. Even so, Minnesota would remain the nation's largest sugar beet producer, at 445,000 acres.

Iowa

Iowa producers intend to plant 1 percent less corn than last year, a drop of 200,000 acres, but the state would still be the nation's largest corn producer, with 13.5 million acres.

Leaders of Iowa Corn Promotion Board and Iowa Corn Growers Association pointed to incomplete field work from last fall and the normal corn-soybean rotation as causes for the decrease.

Soybean acreage is expected to jump in Iowa by 3 percent, or 300,000 acres, keeping the country's top soybean-producing position. Total soybean acreage would be 9.9 million.

Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association, said this projection is lower than many expected.

"For soybeans, the acreage number isn't enough to offset huge demand or give any allowance for poor weather," Leeds said.

Chad Hart, grain market specialist with Iowa State University, said the report's numbers are a reflection of weather farmers were seeing in the first half of March.

"Farmers were looking out there, seeing a potential for wet, soggy fields from here on out. Normally, if you think you'll get delayed (you'll think about planting) more soybeans, less corn," said Hart. "...The numbers could be changing now with warmer weather."

Tim Burrack of Arlington, chairman of Iowa Corn Promotion Board, said he would increase the corn he'll plant by 160 acres because of recent nice conditions. ICGA executive board member Kevin Ross doesn't anticipate growers in his area of southwest Iowa to increase or decrease acres.

Hart emphasized how much weather will be a factor leading up to planting.

"We're still sitting on adequate to surplus soil moisture, meaning if we get substantial rains in the next couple of weeks, we could have planting problems again," he said.

Oat projections are down 2 percent, or 5,000 acres in Iowa. Wheat is down 46 percent, or 13,000 acres.